Wouldn’t you like to know what odds of winning your play has? Do I have to keep betting or should I withdraw from my hand? These are questions that any newcomer to the game of Poker is raised in each hand, which is usually guided by their instinct , being the luck factor that determines its value, when this is not the best option, especially when simple mathematical rules will help us make a decision more adjusted to reality, getting our game to be in the long term winner.
We talked about the calculation of the odds of winning that our hand has when arriving at the show-down by means of the “outs” and the “odds” once the flop cards have been discovered, that said, let’s clarify what these concepts consist of.
What are outs?
The outs (literal translation “exits”) refers to the outstanding cards that we will link with our best play and that remain in the deck or have not been discovered, with which we will establish a percentage of chances of getting that “nut” which will allow us to finish the boat on our side of the table.
Example:
The cards are distributed to all players and we check that we have two cards of the same suit, for example A ♦ 8 ♦, this combination is called “suited”. As we indicated previously, the calculation of probabilities, we will do it from the flop, leaving the table like this when this is discovered, 7 ♣ J ♦ 6 ♦. At the outset we did not manage to link a couple, but an interesting color project. We have two options to win the hand, either discovering an ace (maximum pair) in the next street (another pair of aces kicker 7 or lower, would lose against us), or discovering any diamond card that would provide us with the precious color, in this case the ace, with which we would obtain the nut until that moment. It is time to analyze our play and its possibilities in the show-down.
The cards that serve us to win are aces and there are two to be discovered, therefore we add 2 outs and by virtue of our color project, on the 13 cards of the suit that interests us, we discount those that have already been discovered for us total 4 (two of our hand + two of the flop), we would get another 9 outs, so if we add them we will have a total of 11 outs or letters that serve us.
There are many variants that you can see in the table attached below, such as, internal staircase project (4 outs), open staircase project (8 outs), etc. You must make the necessary effort to learn to calculate this important value, which will help you to improve your game.
Statistics: odds and outs
Hidden Outs:
They are more difficult to identify outs but with which we would also improve our hand in case of being produced.
Example:
We have A ♣ A ♠ and our rival 7 ♣ 8 ♥, when the 4th street is reached, the turn is discovered and the board (table) looks like this, K ♥ T ♠ 7 ♦ 8 ♣, we know the possibility of doubles of our opponent, loose player , we put you right in a very possible doubles of sevens and eight depending on your game. An ace on the river gives us the victory, but in addition, with a king or a T that doubles we would also win the hand by obtaining double aces-kings or aces-ten, while the villain plays with a maximum pair of eights.
Discounting outs:
Not all the outs that we can count would give us the winning hand, there are times when one or more of those out, serve the opponent to complete a superior hand to ours, so they must be discounted by decreasing our chances of winning the hand.
Example:
We have J ♠ T ♠ and the flop offers us 5 ♣ K ♥ Q ♥, a two-pointed ladder project, so we count 8 outs (4 nines and 4 aces), however, if our opponent played with 7 ♥ 8 ♥ We would be counting two outs with which our rival would be completing his color project as well as our ladder, such as the A ♥ and the 9 ♥ and they would serve us only to pat more paste than if we had planned it from the beginning and discounted from our outs from the first moment since our real outs were 6 and not eight.
Odds of linking our best hand:
Once we have clarified what our real outs are, we would have another step to know in percentage statistical data the probability of getting our desired hand. This percentage is called odds. The formula that we will apply to determine the percentage of probability is extremely simple: (# of outs) x 4 when we do it from the flop to the river (flop and turn together) and (# of outs) x 2 on either street individually, flop or turn.
Serve as an example the project of open staircase or two points in which we counted 8 outs. If we want to know our chances of success from the flop to the river, we will multiply our 8 outs x 4 which gives us a 32% chance you get our ladder on the river. If we want to know our odds on the flop or on the turn individually, we will multiply our 8 outs x 2, which would give us a 16% chance of getting our ladder linked in each street.
Let’s calculate the odds:
In the same way that we calculate our outs and the probability of getting a winning hand tied, we must now know the percentage of victory in each hand. The odds show us exactly that percentage for which we will apply the following formula:
(Probability of losing) = 100% – (probability of winning)
Example:
We have K ♠ 9 ♣ and upon discovering the flop it shows us, Q ♥ 9 ♦ 7 ♣, which gives us a second table pair, we believe that our rival has an initial hand of type QT, seen thus, we know that we have 3 outs of the king + 2 nines = 5 outs. Let us now calculate our percentage of victory using the formula (Probability of losing) = 100% – (probability of winning).
The probability of winning corresponds to a 20% that is extracted from the multiplication of our 5 outs by 4. Therefore 100% – 20% (prob. Of winning) = 80% (prob. Of losing), now if we divide the probability of losing between the probability of winning 80/20 we will get a chance of winning from 4 to 1 or what is the same 4: 1. This data indicates in turn that every five times we play that same hand we will win a .
Here we show you this very interesting table of outs and odds, which is very important to know in depth and be familiar with it to the point of memorizing it if possible. It is important to keep it in mind especially in the phases of initiation to the game.
Odds and outs, table …
Pot odds:
This data will be obtained by calculating the proportion between the size of the pot and the bet that has to be paid, therefore, once we have calculated our odds, we must compare them with the odds of the pot. When the odds of the pot are higher than the odds of our hand, then we must pay the villain / s bet / s.
Example of pot odds with color project:
We play with ace color project on the flop, which is 9 outs, in the pot there is € 4, our opponent bets € 1, therefore, 4 + 1 = € 5 total pot. It is time to compare our odds with the pot odds, that is we have to put € 1 to match the rival’s bet and there is € 5 in the pot, they give us a pot odds of 5: 1. We check the table above and check that our odds with 9 outs are 2: 1 on the flop, so we should pay the bet, since the odds of the pot are higher than our odds of winning the hand.
Example of pot odds with ladder project:
We have an internal ladder project on the flop (4 outs) with a € 15 jackpot, our opponent bets € 5, so the boat goes to € 20, we must put € 5 more into the boat to match, the odds of the boat are 20: 5, or what is the same if we make the division 4: 1, the odds of the boat are 4: 1. We check the table in section 4 outs to see our odds and offers the data of 5 : 1 so it would not be convenient to pay the bet because it would cost us money in the long term, since the odds of the pot are lower than our odds and the probability of winning.
In short, it is obvious that it is not easy to get acquainted immediately and implement it in full, but it is an issue that you cannot avoid if you want your game to be profitable. Start by calculating the outs that is the first step and the simplest and has the table to locate your odds immediately, try to learn it by heart and you will not depend on the luck factor but on winning or losing expectations that will allow you to make the best decisions in each moment.
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