In this poker strategy article, we highlight several problematic starting hands at Texas Hold’em Poker: Jacks, Ace King, Ace Queen and Kings. We give some tips and hints on how to play these hands successfully and avoid mistakes.
Problem Hand 1: Pocket Jacks
A poker wisdom says, “There are three ways to play Pocket Jacks. They are all wrong.” J-J is a hand that is so passionately rejected by many players that they can not even enjoy it anymore.
Actually, one would have to look forward to the boys, because you have caught one of the top five Texas Hold’em starting hands.
But then most of the players quickly recall the rather mediocre record they have made with this hand.
Error in the pre-flop game
Beginners often make the mistake of raising too high before the flop. You can see live on the low levels Raises up to 20 BB. The idea behind this is to win the pot before the flop (who does not see a flop, can not make mistakes and lose money) or be called by one hand, which is better (a higher pair).
Some players just put all the chips in the middle, because they want to avoid any further decision. This move is obviously a mistake – although the underlying train of thought is quite understandable.
With this move, you almost never lose with pocket jacks, so the win rate for this hand reaches a tremendous height. This seems to justify the move ostensibly, but only if you ignore some basic poker concepts.
When you play your boys like that, you rarely win more than the blinds (and sometimes the bets of one limper or another). But if you lose, it’s the entire stack.
Suppose we buy 100 BB (for cash games this is a standard buy-in) and win eight out of nine times with our boys. That is, we strike 8 x 1.5 BB (ie SB + BB) = 12 BB and lose 100 BB once. Overall, we lose 9.8 BB ((12-100): 9 = -9.8BB), statistically every time we make this move.
Where does the 8: 1 ratio come from, you ask? The chance to get a specific pocket pair is 1: 220. The chance of getting aces, kings or ladies is three times as big: 3: 220. There are nine other players at a Full Ring 10 table, d. H. the chance is 27: 220 (about 1: 8) that a player at the table gets a higher pair than J-J.
Here we are not concerned with an exact result. What is z. B. with the situations in which the boys beat the overpair? This happens about every 10 times, which corresponds to an improvement of our above result by 1.2 BB.
In addition, we assume here that every pair always pays ladies or better.
We do not want to determine exact numbers with this example, but rather demonstrate that this turn basically loses money. It does not matter how much money he loses. We are dealing here with a perfect one-way-behind-or-behind-behind situation, a typical situation where one’s hand is either far in front or far behind. The only hands that pay the all-in are better than Jacks.
The only exception that is rare is a call with A-K (or even A-Q). In the long run, J-J’s gains and losses are balanced against A-K, so we can ignore this example.
Before the flop
Now that we’ve ruled out too high raises and all-ins as options, we turn to the question of how to better play pocket jackpots before the flop.
Poker is really an extraordinary game. If all players were given the same cards again and again, and these players had no recollection of how they had played their hands in the past rounds, the same hand would always be different, depending on the following variables:
- Position at the table.
Position to the other players.
Position of strong hands at the table.
Chaos theory and arbitrariness.
First let’s talk about the position at the table. It’s pretty obvious why you play J-J UTG differently than on the button.
Maniacs at the table affect how we play our hands. If we have a player at the table who blindly pushes almost every hand all-in, we’ll adjust our style of play, depending on whether the maniac is after us or ahead of us, regardless of your own position at the table.
If one of the other players holds A-K, it is crucial whether the player with A-K is behind us or in front of us. If he sits in front of us, he will probably start, he sits behind us, he will probably pay.
By the way, the chaos theory is applicable in many different contexts. A. also in poker. If you let the same hand play twice without changing a single variable, it will probably be the same as the first time. This can basically be repeated endlessly.
But now and then something special will happen. Now and then one of the players suddenly becomes creative and does something unusual.
The name “chaos” means that certain events can not be predicted, whether they occur or when. There are some fantastic mathematicians who are dealing with this problem and who can prove that even seemingly perfectly random events follow a pattern.
With pocket jacks you try before the flop to get information about the opponent’s cards. If nobody has a higher pair, we hold the best hand, so an open raise is always a raise for value. If there are players with a higher pair, this will be an informational raise.
If there is a raise before us, we have two options. Either a call that means we have to play on the flop with no (further) information, or a re-raise. If our opponent then goes all-in, we have a simple fold, but if we are only called, we must play a big pot, and probably with a dominated hand.
After an opponent’s raise all-in before the flop, similar to the initially discussed move, with Jacks basically put all the chips in the middle. In this situation, however, we are dominated above average often (because the raise points to a good hand), so the all-in here has a negative expectation (-EV).
In the majority of cases we will raise with pocket jacks before the flop. We want to take control of the pot and not let the pot get too big.
In a full ring cash game, we should never go all-in with this hand without improving it. To keep the pot small, we will check and call rather than bet and raise as soon as possible.
Unfortunately, it is not always obvious if we go on the flop with the best hand or not. Jacks are only one pair, and there are three higher cards.
Even as an overpair, boys are still considered a “small pot hand.” With this pocket pair, we drive the best when we control the pot – and a pot in a manageable size.
Chances with Jacks
Nearly a quarter of the cards in the deck have a higher value than the pair you are holding in your hand. If another player at the table gets one of these cards, the chance of getting another one at the same time is 16%. If a player gets two (different) overcards to our Jacks, the chance of hitting a pair on the flop is doubled to 32%.
As we learned in the first part, the chance of another player getting a higher pair is 12% or 1: 8. So, in 12% of the time, we are already a long way from the flop, and if all of the players who hold a higher card than a jack also see the flop, another 32% loss ratio will be added.
That does not sound very good, because we lose about 44% of the time. But before we ask ourselves how J-J can count among the five best hands in terms of such numbers, we must keep in mind that statistics completely ignore style of play and player mentality.
Not every player who gets a high card sees a flop. The numbers thus only describe where pocket jacks stand approximately before the human element comes into play.
A few more dates
In the first table we compare the Pocket Jacks against different numbers of different, arbitrary starting hands on an arbitrary board up to the river. The chips are left out for the moment. Each of these scenarios was played millions of times.
More hands on the table chance of winning pocket jacks:
- 9 hands = 19%
- 8 hands = 22%
- 7 hands = 25%
- 6 hands = 29%
- 5 hands = 34%
- 4 hands = 40%
- 3 hands = 49%
- 2 hands = 61%
- 1 hand = 78%
This is the statistical chance of winning.
In a large number of cases, our raise with the boys will cause us to flop heads up. In the next table, we look at what the boys look like against the hands we’re most likely to face on the flop.
Enemy Hand Chance of winning Pocket Jacks:
- AA, KK, QQ = 18%
- TT or lower pair = 83%
- A-Ks = 54%
- A-Ts = 68%
- 7-8s = 78%
In a heads-up situation, the boys are up against almost all hands (except three). And that’s why JJ is considered one of the ten strongest premium hands.
Unfortunately, the reality is that we will always get a call from AA, KK and QQ, and often from the other hands as well. And when that happens, we usually only win a small pot when the opponents do not hit, but lose a big one when they do.
If we have to face a flop on more than one opponent’s pre-flop raise or our bucks do not raise before the flop, then we need to have a pretty good feel for how our hand stands against a whole range of ranges.
The next three tables show how the boys behave against a variety of different hands. The opposing hands represent a particularly unfavorable, a particularly favorable and a mixed case.
JJ against a “favorable” field
Hand chance of winning:
J ♣ J ♦ = 53%
9 ♥ 9 ♠ = 9%
4 ♣ 5 ♣ = 14%
3 ♦ 3 ♠ = 13%
9 ♠ T ♥ = 11%
JJ against an “unfavorable” field
Hand chance of winning:
J ♣ J ♦ = 9%
A ♥ A ♣ = 45%
K ♣ Q ♣ = 12%
5 ♦ 6 ♦ = 20%
T ♥ J ♥ = 15%
JJ against a “mixed” field
Hand chance of winning:
J ♣ J ♦ = 37%
A ♣ K ♥ = 24%
3 ♣ 3 ♥ = 15%
6 ♦ 5 ♦ = 15%
A ♦ 9 ♦ = 9%
While we will find ourselves in all these situations, the mixed field is by far the most common case. As you can see from the individual values, our chance of winning changes dramatically depending on the distribution and number of enemy hands.
In a field like the one above, we have a 37% chance of winning (which means 2: 1 outsiders), but get 4: 1 for our money.
Although the boys are a top 5 hand and often have a good chance of winning, they are often falsely played by beginners as a premium pair.
That is, they play boys or ladies as well as kings or aces, although the statistics clearly show that JJ is not nearly as strong as any of the other high pairs.
In the third part of this series, we’ll look at how the boys behave on the flop from a mathematical and playful perspective, and how to use the boys’ equity to their advantage. Equity is the relative strength of a hand, ie the number of cases in which this hand statistically wins.
As a rule of thumb: Sit, if you are in front, get off, if you are behind. Sounds easy, but is not that easy to implement.
Jacks after the flop
J-J is an excellent example of a so-called middle hand. If she does not improve on the flop, she will remain a medium hand. If an opponent hits the flop better, it quickly turns into a bottom-pair hand, making JJ nothing more than a bluff.
In such a situation, J-J has no higher value than 2-3. Fortunately for us, J-J is at the upper end of the medium-sized scale. It is the best of all hands of the middle and lower class. As long as nobody has a top hand, we are very good with it.
Here you can see very well how much each poker hand is situation dependent. J-J is only as good as the opposing hands allow it – and as good as the board will allow.
Since this is such a speculative hand, at least if you do not hit the board, you should at least try to keep the pot small.
Little pots
With weak hands you should play small pots. Most beginners are surprised when they learn what that really means. Even on a flop of 2 ♣ 4 ♥ 9 ♠, Pocket Jacks are no match for a big pot. You should also keep the pot small by checking, calling and placing below the pot size.
If you get a call on a big bet, the pot grows exponentially every time. Each subsequent bet must be correspondingly larger and therefore brings us quickly into situations where we are pot-committed. If you bet pot-size on the early streets, you force yourself to play a very big pot with a medium hand.
It makes more sense to win and fold small pots when someone indicates they have a big hand rather than just winning and losing big pots all the time.
Of course, like everything in poker, this depends on the situation. If we have an opponent willing to risk his stack with top pair or even less, the overpair J-J suddenly becomes a very strong hand.
In a standard scenario, J-J is only a medium hand and should be played that way.
Jacks on the flop
The flop can be any combination, but there are only three main scenarios that you will encounter again and again with Pocket Jacks. Either you improve yourself to a top hand (also called a monster), or you have an overpair, or you are behind an overpair.
Here are the odds for J-J on a flop J ♣ 7 ♦ 2 ♦:
Hand Chance in:
J ♦ J ♥ = 73%
A ♣ A ♦ = 11%
T ♥ 9 ♦ = 15%
As you can see, we have a 73% chance of winning, even though one of our opponents holds aces and another a good shot straight. In this situation, we now have a top hand. At this point we change our strategy and now want to get as much money into the pot as possible.
On the other hand, if you hold an overpair against other weak hands that hit the board well, the odds of winning suddenly change dramatically:
Hand Chance in:
J ♦ J ♥ = 44%
A ♣ K ♠ = 12%
T ♥ 9 ♥ = 44%
Let’s take a look at the situation. Although holding like an overpair, our chance of winning is only 44%. We have the best hand with the same equity, but the weak odds mean that we now find ourselves in the weaker hands category.
We do not want to fold our hand at this point, but we do not want to risk our entire stack. Instead, we try to keep the pot small with checks and calls to watch what happens on the later streets.
The third main scenario is a flop where an opponent has an overpair. In the following table the flop A ♠ 7 ♣ 6 ♠ falls.
Hand Chance in:
J ♦ J ♥ = 7%
A ♣ K ♠ = 74%
T ♥ 9 ♥ = 18%
On this flop we suddenly only have 7% equity. We are a blatant outsider and should dispose of our hand. Even a small pot is too big, unless we have huge implied odds.
If all players have more than 50 BB and we can be sure that our opponent will never fold his aces when we hit a jack, we can continue. In any other situation, however, we only waste money.
Pocket Jacks in tournaments
In a tournament, pocket jacks behave very differently than in a cash game. Apart from the first levels, you are usually relatively short-stacked in a tournament.
In short-stack poker, pre-flop equity is our most important consideration. J-J is a very strong hand on a 20bb stack and you should be ready to go all-in with a hand like this before the flop or on a flop without overcards.
Shortstack poker strategy is fundamentally different from deepstack strategy. With a stack of more than 100 BB you play very differently than with less than 100 BB.
If you are in a hand in which no player signals strength clearly, you have to assume that the boys are a monster and they play that way.
Tournament Poker usually forgives no mistake. Every little mistake can cost us tournament life. That’s why tournament poker is so dependent on situation and read.
To fold J-J against a higher pocket requires almost telepathic powers.
Pocket Jacks are among the hands that are the hardest to play. As a beginner, you should be careful with the principle of “medium hand and small pot.” Keep the boys as overpair, play them like top pair.
Think of one of the oldest poker prompts that reads, “Never go broke with just one pair.”
Problem hand 2: Kings in early position
Ideally, you play big pots only when you have position.
In real life, of course, it looks different. It happens that you sit in early position and then get a hand that you really want to play a big pot with. B. K-K.
If the position is suitable for playing small pots, but the hand is calling for a big pot, you can quickly make costly mistakes.
The best strategy in such a situation depends on what kind of opponent you are attacking.
Pre-Flop
How to play this hand before the flop also influences the decisions after the flop.
With KK you should try from an early position to gain control of the pot and gather information about your opponents.
The open-raise
Strictly after textbook one should open with such a hand. A raise from an early position gives opponents the impression of holding a strong hand or even a premium hand.
As a result, you build up some fold equity and can often win the hand with a continuation bet.
In many cases, players call here with weaker hands, hoping to hit the flop well and “crack” a strong hand and win a big pot.
These players are looking for a “way-ahead-or-behind-behind” situation and are usually ready to fold on the flop if they find nothing on the flop.
If you’re not flopping a monster or playing against a really weak opponent who can not fold, you usually do not want to be called to the river.
If you only have an overpair, you should not necessarily try to play a big pot. Here is pot control announced to keep the pot to low to medium size.
The Limp Reraise
A limp reraise is often used as a weapon in this situation.
A player limps from early position with kings and waits for another player to raise. When it’s his turn again, a high re-raise occurs.
The problem with this turn is, however, that he is successful only against extremely loose and daring players.
A limp reraise represents an extremely strong hand. Every halfway intelligent player places one on a range AA, KK, QQ and maybe AK and JJ.
In other words, after a limp re-raise, AA is usually all-in, while practically no other hand is paid. Many players fold JJ or QQ in such a situation without much hesitation.
The second problem with this style of play is that you have to build a big pot and then play the rest of the hand without position.
And finally, after a limp reraise, no player will raise anymore.
In general, if you’re not playing against a maniac or the image of a very tricky player has grown up at the table, so your opponents do not just bet on the 3-5 best hands, avoid the limp re-raise as much as possible.
The limp call
It is also conceivable to limp the turn and then call a possible raise.
This is exactly the opposite of ABC poker, and this move should only be used to vary your own game. If nobody raises, you have to flop a number of opponents without having any information.
In this situation, you try to play a small pot, because it may well be that you are behind.
But if someone raises, and you are one of the few callers, you are in a relatively comfortable situation. Chances are you’ll see the flop with your best hand, and the strength of your hand is well hidden.
Problem Hand 3: Ace King
A-K, suited or not suited, is a premium starting hand. You can ask everyone. But how is it that makes the hand beginner so many problems?
As is typical for premium hands, the pots that you play with A-K are usually above average. Therefore, a hand often forces too difficult decisions.
Before we figure out a good strategy for this hand, let’s look at how strong the hand really is. For that, we look at the equity of the hand in different scenarios.
A-K against all
A-K is a tricky hand, because statistically speaking, a large range of hands is playing against them. With A-K you often know less well where you stand than with other hands. There is hardly a worse situation than not knowing if it is good to hit the flop or not.
Now that A-K is a drawing hand (that is, it’s a hand that has to hit the board to be better than ace), many players believe that they should try to play pot against multiple opponents. Since their hand has to hit anyway, they suspect that they should get as much money in the pot as possible.
But there are also players who play A-K like a premium hand and use it to raise big raises to isolate as much as possible a single opponent.
Before we go into each style of play, let’s take a closer look at how A-K behaves in these two playing stalks.
A-K against a single opponent
In the following table we compare A-K with AA, KK, QQ, 66, A-Q offsuit and 7-8 suited.
It would not make sense to compare A-K with every possible hand, so we’ve made a representative selection here: overpair, high pair, underpair, dominated ace and middle suited connectors.
Opponent’s hand wins in% A ♠ K ♠ wins in:
A ♦ A ♥ 87.9% = 12.1%
K ♠ K ♥ 65.9% = 34.1%
Q ♦ Q ♥ 53.8% = 46.2%
6 ♦ 6 ♥ 52.1% = 47.9%
A ♦ Q ♦ 28.7% = 71.3%
A ♦ Q ♥ 24.4% = 75.6%
This table only serves to roughly classify A-K in terms of equity. A complete list was not planned here, but we want to get an idea of where we stand with A-K against a single opponent.
Make sure that the odds of winning change as we vary the card colors, such as: B. in the two examples with A-Q.
The equity of A ♠ K ♠ is 49% in our example. That may surprise at first, but A-K is one of the top five starting hands. That’s right, but it’s also a good example of how statistics – even correct statistics – often distort the truth.
For example, while running occasionally with A-K against A-A, but much more frequently against A-Q, A-J and K-Q. Statistically, it’s more likely to hit Q-Q than K-K, and there are many more non-dominated suited connectors than we’ve listed.
If we included all sorts of hands in our calculation, we would very quickly see that the chances of winning A-K are rising considerably, making it a profitable hand.
A-K against several opponents
Now let’s look at how A-K behaves in the face of multiple enemies in one hand. We will keep the same example hands, but I will design different scenarios.
Let’s start with the direct comparison. Assuming that A ♠ K ♠ goes all-in pre-flop, seven players call so all hands reach the river. I know that this scenario is extremely unlikely, but it’s all about the mathematical probabilities.
Hand chance of winning:
A ♠ K ♠ = 10.6%
A ♦ A ♥ = 30.8%
K ♦ K ♥ = 8.7%
Q ♦ Q ♥ = 8.1%
6 ♦ 6 ♥ = 15.5%
A ♣ Q ♣ = 11%
7 ♦ 8 ♦ = 15.2%
In this unlikely scenario, A-K wins in 10% of all cases (or every tenth time). But since there are only seven enemies in the game and we only get 7: 1 for our money, this scenario is -EV. In fact, every scenario is negative here as long as A-A is in the hand.
Side note: Let’s take a moment’s notice of the profit expectation of A-A. It is 30%, with odds of 7: 1. Therefore, players like Mike Caro argue that A-A should be played in multi-way pots as much as possible in order to optimize long-term results.
Let’s take a more realistic scenario. The results change immediately dramatically. We now use A-K in a licked pot against a range of hands that typically play in your hand. If nobody raises, chances are good that nobody will hold either AA or KK.
Hand chance of winning:
A ♠ K ♠ = 19.5%
A ♦ Q ♦ = 18.6%
A ♥ 9 ♣ = 2.7%
6 ♠ 5 ♠ = 12.5%
T ♥ T ♣ = 24.1%
3 ♦ 3 ♠ = 15.2%
7 ♣ 9 ♥ = 7.4%
In this somewhat more probable scenario, our A-K wins the pot in just under 20% of the time. So we win every fifth time. With that we are back in the black.
Equity simplified
As already mentioned, this first article is all about clarifying the fundamental equity of A-K. The figures and results given are the basics on which we build. We almost start from zero.
We’re talking about pure equity, not to be confused with other types of odds. The numbers give an idea of where you stand with a hand like A-K. Our goal must be to change the statistics in our favor so that our opponents give us better odds than the base equity does.
In short, hand equity and odds are not always the same. The odds in the game are always estimates because we do not have complete information. One does not know 100% what the opponent holds, and the same applies to him.
This means that the odds change depending on the fold equity (your bluffing room) and your decisions in the course of a hand.
We can play the hand or fold it. If we fold every time A-Q meets a lady, and we call each time we hit our ace against K-K, we win a lot more money than the equity suggests.
Or, in other words, if we go all-in with 1000 BB in each case we meet on A-Q, and lose 10 BB each time we hit A-A, we disprove statistical equity.
Although the equity predicts correctly how many times we win with our hand, the actual amount of the prize depends on how we play and how we manipulate the statistics. (Of course, I know that this example too is completely unrealistic.) My point here is to make the concept as clear as possible.)
Knowledge and style change the odds. When the best and worst football team in a league compete against each other, the good team can become overbearing in the face of its massive favorite role and therefore plays worse – maybe even so bad that it loses.
How many times have we seen such a scenario happen and the outsider wins? On the other hand, if the two teams did not know each other and assumed that they were the better team, the odds of winning the good team would be pretty accurate.
If you want to look more closely at how the odds can always face the logic, I recommend you the three-door problem, which was very nice to see a few years ago in the game show “Go on the whole”.
In the game show, the candidate faces three closed doors. Behind one is the main prize – a car – and behind the other two is the “Zonk.” The candidate first chooses a goal (# 1), after which the presenter, who knows where the prize hides, opens another (No. 3) and offers to the candidate: “Would you prefer goal number 2?”
What should the candidate do?
If you’re not a hobby logician (or know the problem), you’ll probably spontaneously assume that it does not matter. Two doors, one price, that’s a 50% chance of winning, right?
In fact, that’s not correct. The candidate should always choose the “other” goal, increasing the chance of winning to 66%.
In the next article, I discuss various A-K style tactics that can be used to change the odds in your favor.
Until then, memorize what odds and equity really mean and why they are not absolute sizes.
How To Win With Ace-King
We have already shown that A-K plays blindly (meaning, without information about the other players and without knowledge of their own hands) a slightly positive expectation value.
The hand is strong enough to win the majority of the pots, but most of those pots will be rather small pots. The big wins are made up for by the high losses you incur when you catch Cooler and run against Aces, which will inevitably happen sooner or later.
So A-K is strong enough to be a profitable hand per se, but with a bit of help, it becomes really lucrative.
The value of the information
It sounds ironic, but poker is a game for thinkers that most players play instinctively. Whether you are aware of it or not, a raise always occurs for one, two, or all three of the following reasons:
- To isolate one or a few opponents.
- To increase the pot, if you hold the best hand.
- To get information from the other players.
If you raise with A-K, then mainly for the third reason, you raise with A-A, then mostly from the second. A-K is strong enough to win in the long term against multiple opponents.
To enlarge the pot is not a bad idea, but keep in mind that A-K is a drawing hand. To have equity after the flop, you have to hit it.
With A-K one increases to gather information. If you understand why you should raise instead of just raising because you do it with A-K, then you are far enough to come up with a plan.
If you understand that a raise is here for information, then you can adjust the timing and amount of the raise exactly.
Use information
If the first step is to gather information, the second step must be to use that information for your own benefit. This is the step by which one can manipulate long-term odds and increase the profitability of the hand.
Ok, now that we’ve got our information, it’s time to make the right move. Reads in poker sites always refer to rank, that is, to a set of hands. The better you can read the opponent, the smaller the range you bet on the opponent.
If you have gathered enough information through the correct moves and are able to read your opponents well, you can reduce the range to a few hands – sometimes even one.
If you know what your opponent thinks you can adjust your game accordingly. If you place the opponent on Aces or Kings, you have to fold A-K to limit the losses. The goal is to minimize losses and maximize profits.
If you put the opponent on a range A-Q, A-J, K-Q, you should try to build up the pot, because each of these hands is dominated by A-K.
Information is essential for correct value bets. If you have set the opponent correctly to the above range and the board is K ♠ 4 ♥ T ♥ 5 ♠ 9 ♣, it is time to set a nice value bet.
Ranges are basically dynamic. Since our opponent is still in the hand on the river (of course we have flop and turn set), we can reduce the range to a single hand: K-Q.
In this situation we can achieve the maximum profit. If our opponent does not put us on AA or KK, he will not want to remember that A-K is the only hand he loses here.
Rather, most of our opponents here are trying to convince themselves that we have Q-Q, K-J, J-J or even A-Q. Therefore, a rich value bet is appropriate, because the chance to be paid, is extremely large.
Minimizing losses and maximizing profits are absolutely crucial to A-K. So we have to be clear about when to bet, raise and fold:
Reasons for Bets with A-K
- Collecting information
- Building the pot
- Either fold a weaker hand or call with bad odds
- Forcing a low pair to fold the better hand
- Value Bets
Reasons for Raises with A-K
- Gathering information (raises usually gain more information than bets)
- Value raises are said to move weaker hands to the call
- A faint maggot hand bluffing out of the pot
Reasons for calls with A-K
- Pot control
- Set traps
A-K fold
- If you know that you are beaten
As you can see, calls with A-K are rarely the right way to play. Actually, you only do it in two situations: Either if you keep the nuts or if you want to set a trap.
#img: erica-schoenberg-24195.jpg: right: Even a fold can be the right choice for A-K. #
Here is a nice example: The flop falls T ♣ J ♥ Q ♠. Now we can take a lot of money from the T-T, J-J, Q-Q, K-K, A-A, A-Q, A-J, 8-9, K-9, K-Q, Q-J and Q-T ranges. Most players would ruin themselves with such a hand, if only they let it.
Suppose we put the opponent on a bluff, but could also be beaten. In such a situation, pot control is crucial. If our opponent is actually bluffing, we want him to continue doing that, but if he has the better hand, we’ll keep the pot as small as possible.
Apart from these two scenarios, you should always bet, raise or fold with A-K. If you’re beaten, you can get out of the situation relatively cheaply. But if you are in front, you have to bring as much money as possible into the pot. Quite simple, is not it?
It should be clear here that A-K is a hand that is best played after the flop. While it is true that you make all decisions on this hand before the flop, without the options after the flop, you take the chance to manipulate the odds of the hand other than their statistical value.
In most situations, the rule of thumb for A-K is that if there is no post-flop game, most of the gains you can make with that hand will disappear.
In the third part of the A-K series we look at pre-flop concepts and tournament strategies.
Do you remember the diagram above? It showed that A-K played blindly (meaning, without information about the other players and without knowledge of their own hands) a slightly positive expectation value.
The hand is strong enough to win the majority of the pots, but most of those pots will be rather small pots. The big wins are made up for by the high losses you incur when you catch Cooler and run against Aces, which will inevitably happen sooner or later.
So A-K is strong enough to be a profitable hand per se, but with a bit of help, it becomes really lucrative.
The value of the information
It sounds ironic, but poker is a game for thinkers that most players play instinctively. Whether you are aware of it or not, a raise always occurs for one, two, or all three of the following reasons:
- To isolate one or a few opponents.
- To increase the pot, if you hold the best hand.
- To get information from the other players.
If you raise with A-K, then mainly for the third reason, you raise with A-A, then mostly from the second. A-K is strong enough to win in the long term against multiple opponents.
To enlarge the pot is not a bad idea, but keep in mind that A-K is a drawing hand. To have equity after the flop, you have to hit it.
With A-K one increases to gather information. If you understand why you should raise instead of just raising because you do it with A-K, then you are far enough to come up with a plan.
If you understand that a raise is here for information, then you can adjust the timing and amount of the raise exactly.
Use information
If the first step is to gather information, the second step must be to use that information for your own benefit. This is the step by which one can manipulate long-term odds and increase the profitability of the hand.
Ok, now that we’ve got our information, it’s time to make the right move. Reads in poker sites always refer to rank, that is, to a set of hands. The better you can read the opponent, the smaller the range you bet on the opponent.
If you have gathered enough information through the correct moves and are able to read your opponents well, you can reduce the range to a few hands – sometimes even one.
If you know what your opponent thinks you can adjust your game accordingly. If you place the opponent on Aces or Kings, you have to fold A-K to limit the losses. The goal is to minimize losses and maximize profits.
If you put the opponent on a range A-Q, A-J, K-Q, you should try to build up the pot, because each of these hands is dominated by A-K.
Information is essential for correct value bets. If you have set the opponent correctly to the above range and the board is K ♠ 4 ♥ T ♥ 5 ♠ 9 ♣, it is time to set a nice value bet.
Ranges are basically dynamic. Since our opponent is still in the hand on the river (of course we have flop and turn set), we can reduce the range to a single hand: K-Q.
In this situation we can achieve the maximum profit. If our opponent does not put us on AA or KK, he will not want to remember that A-K is the only hand he loses here.
Rather, most of our opponents here are trying to convince themselves that we have Q-Q, K-J, J-J or even A-Q. Therefore, a rich value bet is appropriate, because the chance to be paid, is extremely large.
Minimizing losses and maximizing profits are absolutely crucial to A-K. So we have to be clear about when to bet, raise and fold:
Reasons for Bets with A-K
- Collecting information
- Building the pot
- Either fold a weaker hand or call with bad odds
- Forcing a low pair to fold the better hand
- Value Bets
Reasons for Raises with A-K
- Gathering information (raises usually gain more information than bets)
- Value raises are said to move weaker hands to the call
- A faint maggot hand bluffing out of the pot
Reasons for calls with A-K
- Pot control
- Set traps
A-K fold
- If you know that you are beaten
As you can see, calls with A-K are rarely the right way to play. Actually, you only do it in two situations: Either if you keep the nuts or if you want to set a trap.
Pre-flop concepts: 3-bets and 4-bets with AK
As mentioned in Part 2, if you ignore the game after the flop, you take most of A-K’s profit yourself.
This means that in a deep-stacked full-ring game, it is rarely a good idea to 3- or 4-bet A-K before the flop.
If you are not sitting down with a player willing to pay multiple 3- and 4-bets with weaker hands, it makes little sense to get involved in a Raise-Reraise slam before the flop. The result is, in most cases, that you go all-in with A-K.
Anyone who plays ABC poker has a premium hand when he bets 3- or 4-bets. He shows us that we are beaten. So we want to keep our losses as low as possible and try to get out cheaply.
If we go all-in with AK pre-flop, we usually find ourselves in conflict with premium hands or in coin flips, sometimes we dominate a weaker ace or a king, and rarely in a 60-40 situation against a hand like J ♥ T ♥.
In the long run, we lose a lot of money with this strategy. A-K is a hand that plays better after the flop.
On a 6-max table is played a lot more aggressive on average. If the range of hands that players use on 3 and 4 bets increases, the all-in with A-K becomes an overall profitable move.
In my opinion, the light 3-bet is too often used by too many players today. Of course, it’s true that many online players today light 3- or 4-bet and our A-K is a monster. On the other hand, one should not forget that except for extremely aggressive players is still increased several times before the flop with a very small range of hands.
This means that we are again dominated or facing a coin flip, or at best 60-40 ahead. Even less often we face a weaker ace or king. Good players will always use this style of play with hands that dominate us, but rarely with those we beat.
But if we take all the coin-flip and 60-40 situations on the flop, we can narrow down the variance and thus the losses. So the situations in which we dominate bring us back to winning ways.
The more aggressive the players are, the more aggressive we can raise and call with A-K. On a full-ring table, you will rarely have A-Q 3-bet, 4-bet, or even all-in (assuming both raisers are deep).
In a 6-max game is played more aggressive, and the stacks are usually not so deep. Here A-Q is played with significantly increased aggression until the all-in.
Depending on which player betting on the 3-bet, it can still be more profitable in such action-packed games to first see a flop than to go all-in immediately.
Pre-flop concepts: Post-flop poker requires greater skill
Post-flop game is much more challenging than the push-or-fold style before the flop. This means that the better players gain a greater advantage if they take their opponents on the flop than they do before the flop.
A weak player tends to play more aggressively before the flop in order to compensate for the losses he suffers when played on the flop.
Very strong players are trying to connect the two components – they play very aggressively before the flop to push the TAGs out of their hands and take away their money, but are still willing to face the LAGs on the flop.
These players dominate the online poker world. TAGs are forced to downgrade their stacks or play a game they are not used to.
The other LAGs, on the other hand, have to risk the ride on the razor blade. If they lose to other LAGs, balance the losses with the money they deduct the TAGs. At this point it is especially important to be able to read the opponent well.
If our edge is big enough, it’s up to us to put our hand on the flop. That’s why z. For example, a Phil Ivey in comparison to almost every other top player much more often, instead of raising.
He is (rightly) convinced that he has an advantage on the flop. If he allowed us to reduce the game to a pre-flop push-or-fold, he would lose much of his edge, as he would have to rely on luck.
Since the majority of players are prepared to bet multiple times before the flop, it is often a question of going into the pot with the best hand to win on the basis of statistics. But if we put our hand on the flop, the bluff factor comes into play again, and we can win more often even with weaker cards.
With A-K we have one of the best starting hands and thus (in most cases) the best equity. Again, it is in our interest to take advantage of this benefit post-flop.
Most hands can be won against low pairs by making big bets after the flop. So you also win hands that you would have lost in a pre-flop all-in.
In the situations where you run against the monsters AA and KK, the pre-flop all-in is certainly not a good idea. On the flop you still have the opportunity to come out cheap one-stop. At least as long as you do not flop the last ace.
Pre-Flop Concepts: Tournament Game
In a tournament, push or all-in call can often be the right choice. Actually, it’s not so much about sitting in a tournament as playing with and against relatively small stacks.
At the beginning of a tournament it makes little sense to bring all the chips in the middle, if you are still 400 BB deep. In this situation, one should control profits and losses post-flop. Unfortunately, tournaments often do not stay deep-stacked for very long.
In most online tournaments, players are not short-stacked too long after they start. If players only hold 10 BB or less, they are forced to increase their aggressiveness. The range of hands being pushed is pretty big. This includes every pair, every hand with two high cards and all higher suited connectors.
A-K is a profitable hand in this situation. Of course you can still run against aces or kings, but the opposing range has expanded so much that you can play A-K profitably on the flop.
Pre-Flop Concepts: Summary
The more aggressive the players, and the smaller the stacks, the more aggressive and looser we play A-K. Even against extremely aggressive players with big stacks it can be more profitable to put the game on the flop.
A hyperaggressive, loose player will fold a hand like A ♣ T ♥ before the flop, but if we let him hit the ace on the flop, we can take the whole stack with A-K.
If we play hard enough to force a weaker player to make his decisions on the flop, we open up the opportunity to win some hands that we do not really own, and we reduce the losses in the hands where we are subject.
Post-flop game with ace-king
These articles are only intended to help you understand the way A-K plays after the flop. Now it’s up to you to make the right decisions to manipulate the odds in your favor.
You put your opponent pre-flop on a hand range. Then it is necessary to narrow down this range and continue accordingly.
If you are in the front rank, try building the pot; lie behind, give up your hand. Based on the assumptions you make, you calculate odds and outs to win the hand, as well as the chances of hijacking the pot with a bluff.
A-K is one of the easier-to-play hands post-flop, but do not let the strength of your hand make weak calls or moves. To successfully continue a hand after the flop requires a certain amount of experience.
The more you play A-K after the flop, and the better your reads are to the opponents, the better you will read bets and the more successful you will play the hand.
If you have carefully read this series of articles, you should now know the weaknesses and strengths of A-K. On this basis, you can play the hand purposefully and thoughtfully, rather than just for feeling. That strengthens your ability to play the hand profitably.
When you play A-K, you become aware of every single turn. Every action leads to a consequence. Think carefully about where you want to go with your moves, choose the correct turn, and then rate the outcome.
If the results are not what you expected, your read on the opponent or his hand is incorrect. You have no choice but to start from the beginning, to set a goal and work step by step.
Problem Hand 4: Ace Lady
Ladies and Gentlemen, and everyone else, it’s time to face reality and stop playing Ace-Dame. Daniel Negreanu used to like to call A-Q “1.4” – after the $ 1.4 million he has already lost with this hand.
This in itself is the most dangerous hand in poker. It’s one of the top ten starting hands, but it’s not a premium hand. Let’s make that clear first, before proceeding.
Here is the list of the ten best hands for Full Ting tables in the opinion of two poker celebrities who need to know:
- 1. A-A A-A
- 2. K-K K-K
- 3. Q-Q Q-Q
- 4. A-K suited J-J
- 5. J-J A-K suited
- 6. T-T A-Q suited
- 7. 9-9 T-T
- 8. 8-8 A-K offsuit
- 9. A-Q suited K-Q suited
- 10. 7-7 A-J suited
Hellmuth’s lineup is based on a combination of probabilities, experience and emotion, Caro’s exclusively on math. From Caro there are three different hand-hit parades: one for full-ring, one for heads-up and a general, which represents an approximation of the two lists.
For us, the most important difference between the two lists is where the hand A-Q was placed. From a mathematical point of view, the hand should be in 6th place. It is the problems that cause A-Q so frequently that caused Hellmuth to only place her in 9th place.
Among the premium hands we only count the first five in both tables above. The order differs there, but they are the same hands.
How to play these hands before the flop is covered in another article in this section: Hold’em before the flop for beginners. If you are one of the beginners in this game, start reading it there.
If you continue reading here, I now assume that you are an advanced player with solid basic knowledge who is able to read other players and use tricky moves, and that you are capable of making marginal hands out of medium To play position.
The category A-Q
No matter which table you look at, A-Q will always be in the top ten hands. So first we have to accept that A-Q suited is not a top 10 hand, but a top 20 hand.
If you play a textbook and are based on tables, you will never play ace-suited (A-Qs) from early position, and in middle to late position only if you have not previously played.
As a top 20 hand, both A-Qs and A-Qo are among the top 10% of all starting hands. Of all possible starting hands, only 5.85% are as strong as or stronger than A-Q from a statistical point of view. A-Qs is hit only by 3.77% of all hands.
Overall, 4.81% of all hands beat A-Q. We will then use 5% as a rounded approximation.
As far as poker mathematics is concerned, the values we work with are basically only approximate. If we’re accurate to one or two percent, that’s enough.
As long as our decisions have a positive expectation value, the exact value is not important. Whether we now have 64% or 65% chance of winning is irrelevant to the way you have to play the hand.
Raise or not raise?
Anyone playing ABC poker will only pick up the top 20 hands anyway. Thus not quite 10% of all hands are playable according to textbook.
On average, you should play one hand per orbit. That’s about three hands per hour in a live game. Online it is about three times as many per table because of the higher speed.
If only 5% of all hands are better than our A-Q, then we should have equity on our side. With the largest equity, the motto is Raise. It’s about building the pot.
If only 10% of all hands are playable, and this belongs to the medium strength hands, you should play them at full throttle.
Unfortunately, poker does not work so straightforward. Things are rarely that easy.
A good example is Mike Caro’s book Caros Most Profitable Hold’em Advice. I read it many years ago, when Texas Hold’em was far from well studied and had relatively little scientific knowledge.
At that time, many players believed that the best starting hand was J-T suited. These are the highest suited connectors with full straight potential up and down, in contrast to To Q-J.
If we look at A-Q only as to how the hand fails statistically, in my opinion, we are doing something wrong. We would practically work with half-truths and omit some important aspects.
The truth is simple: A-Q does not win in 95% of the cases.
In the next episode, we examine A-Q more closely and consider the actual strength of the hand. In the third and final part, we will focus on the best way to play A-Q.
What is ace lady really worth?
Now let’s look at some scenarios. We do not worry about the exact mathematical calculation. It suffice here approximate values.
If you raise with A-Q before the flop, you will be called by four different categories of hands:
- Hands that dominate A-Q
- Hands that dominate A-Q
- Coin Flips
- Rags (marginal hands)
1. Hands that dominate A-Q: AA, KK, QQ, A-K
We can set our win rate against AA, KK and QQ at 0%. These hands usually re-raise us from the pot. If somehow you reach the flop anyway, you lose about 90% of the time. The few big pots you win will be more than made up for by the many pots you lose when you hit a queen or ace with A-Q against aces or queens.
With A-K things are a bit different. Let’s say we are driven out of the pot in about 50% by a re-raise. Then we see the following possible flops in the other 50% of the cases:
- Ace up: how to lose a big pot.
- Queen up: We lose a small pot.
- A-Q on the board: We win a big pot.
- A-Q-K on the board: We lose a big pot.
- Lapped Straight: We win a medium to big pot.
- Rapped Straight Draw: We lose a medium sized pot.
- Totally missed a flop: We lose a small pot.
When we look at the possibilities, we realize that the results are more or less. As a problem with our little lineup here, we have no probabilities attached. The likelihood that we miss the flop completely is by far the highest.
The Chanen on a board ace high is more than twice the size of a board with ace lady.
The chance to flop a straight is only half the size of a straight draw.
Looking more closely at the odds, it becomes clear that A-Q has a very negative expectation against A-K. Not only do you lose 50% anyway, you also lose a lot of big pots from the other 50%. Thus, A-Q has a profit rate of less than 0% against our first group, ie a negative earnings expectation (-EV).
2. Hands that dominate A-Q: A-J, K-Q, A-T, Q-J
These hands are similar to A-Q as A-Q is to A-K. We dominate each one of them. The difference is that these hands are weaker and are therefore often folded before the flop or less often pay large bets. We therefore gain less money against each of these hands than we lose to A-K.
Overall, however, the profit against all these hands outweighs the loss against A-K. This gives us a positive earnings expectation against this hand group (+ EV).
3. Coin Flips: JJ-22
Although 77-22 are not top 20 hands, it can make sense to look at many flops in a cash game. Therefore, many players will pay a raise with it. On the flop we expect the following scenarios (apart from the rare situations in which flushes or striaghts lose against full houses):
- Nobody hits the flop.
- We flop top pair.
- The Egner hits his set, we miss the flop.
- We meet top pair or better, the opponent hits the set.
If both players miss the flop, I estimate the win rate at 50%. In half of the cases, the opponent has a low pair that he will fold, not in the other half.
If we meet top pair and the opponent misses, he will fold. The cases in which the opponent hits the set and those in which he misses are roughly in the long run.
But if the opponent hits the set and we do not hit anything, then we fold.
If we meet top pair and the opponent sets, we lose a significant amount of money.
Overall, we will lose significantly in the long run against these hands. There is no scenario in which we permanently win big pots, but there is one in which we lose them.
If we hit a straight against a set, we win a big pot, but those wins are outweighed by the losses we get when the board pairs.
4th Rags
Weak hands will almost always fold and give us almost 100% win rate, but that means very little money.
Results:
- Hands that dominate A-Q: -EV (mediocre losses)
- Hands dominating A-Q: + EV (mediocre gains)
- Coin Flips: -EV (big losses)
- Rags: + EV (very small prizes)
In each of the scenarios, the calculations show how A-Q can make large losses in the long term. You have no control over how and with which hands your opponents will play, and with that we will be forced into a series of -EV situations with A-Q.
The last aspect that we need to talk about here is the flush. If we hit a flush with A-Q, it’s the best possible one. Small pots we win are offset by the small losses we suffer if we continue with flush draw but it does not arrive (at odds). If we get the flush, we can win everything between very small and very big pots.
If you are able to avoid difficult situations, and only play with A-Q, if it really offers, you can make a clear profit with this top 5% hand.
Game tips for Ace-Queen
The mediocre hand
It has been described in other articles like “Strong Hand, Small Pot 2” that it never makes sense to bet with a mediocre, or rather middle, hand.
A-Q is an example of such a hand. Although Ass-Dame is at the top in the category of the middle hands, but still belongs to it.
Even beginners quickly realize that A-Q is in the top 5% of the hands and therefore assume that it must be a profitable hand for that reason alone.
However, if you do not have the necessary skills, knowledge, and experience, A-Q can be a loser from an early position – and for beginners from any position.
Even players like Daniel Negreanu have already publicly stated that they have long lost with A-Q and are having a hard time with it. That does not mean that they would not play them.
As a top 5%, A-Q is statistically profitable, but only if it is able to separate itself in loss-prone situations.
How to play A-Q
I started this article series with the aim to set up a few guidelines and clear theses for the correct style of play.
Unfortunately, I have the feeling that this is hardly possible in writing. If you look at everything again, what I have written about A-Q, it becomes clear that the profitability depends strongly on the situation.
Depending on how the opponents play and how the table behaves, you have to adjust or even not play A-Q.
If you play against nine opponents who all play only premium hands, A-Q is a loser. But if you play against opponents who play each hand, you earn money with A-Q.
Regardless of how one plays the hand, it is important to gather information with it. You have to find a way to read out from the opponent what you are dealing with. It is better to lose two bets before the flop than later significantly more.
Early position
When I started playing poker, I quickly realized that A-Q was a problem for me, and I started to experiment with it.
One of my ways of playing was limping with A-Q when I got her in early position. Especially if you want to get information from the other players, this is a pretty safe method in no-limit games at low and medium limits.
Since a limp re-raise indicates an extremely strong hand, one can assume that a player who calls or raises further has dominated A-Q. In such a case, you only lose the pre-flop bet, in contrast, when you hit the flop and then have to write off the whole stack.
When you make such a move to gain information, you must never forget what the actual motive was and what you can do with the information.
If you get a call on a limp reraise, you have to set your mind to drop A-Q, regardless of what the flop looks like – unless you flop the Broadway Straight.
Even if you hit Top Two Pair, this is not a soft pillow, because you win nothing against K-K, and sometimes only against A-K.
Remember what your pre-flop game says about your hand. A-K will not necessarily be ready to pay any bet on board A-Q-2. Every opponent will have in mind that you could hold aces or queens, and behave accordingly.
Such a turn is only useful against ABC players. Such a player will predictably react to our turn and behave exactly according to their hand strength.
If you try to use this turn against a very tricky player, you can quickly get into very complicated situations. For example, if it is a player who often places light, raises or three-bets. Then you have not gained any additional information before the flop.
It has now built up a relatively large pot before the flop, without having received new information. This makes decision-making on and after the flop much more difficult.
If you hit an ace or a queen against such a player, you should not just believe that you’re ahead. The pot size will determine how much it hurts if you are wrong.
Late position
As so often, much depends not only on the strength of the hand, but also on playing the position properly.
From a late position, I would generally recommend opening a pot if that has not already happened. After all, it’s a top 5% hand, and if nobody shows strength before us, it’s probably the best hand.
If you sit behind a Raiser, you have to rely on his Reads. It is rarely a mistake to fold against a tight player.
Even if the Raiser is a maniac, do not forget that even those players get monsters from time to time, and with them you’ll raise as with everyone else.
Playing A-Q in a tight pot is a matter of read. If you’re sitting at a table where you’re a losing player, you’d better leave A-Q to the muck.
Although in certain situations I would advise to limp-re-a-Q with A-Q, I prefer to increase the turn from a later position. A re-raise forces all players except the original raiser to fold. This will isolate you and your opponent.
Good players are able to pay with almost any hand and then either trap or try to play us off. You simply can not get enough information from a good player to play profitably in this scenario.
I do not want to have to rely on my luck to play my hand profitably. Simply paying a raise is obviously not a good decision. This does not give us any information, and we get into the situations that we’ve already talked about – and those that have a negative expectation.
In my opinion, one should fold A-Q behind a raise rather than having a very good read on the opponent. If you can read the opponent well, A-Q does not matter anyway. Then the cards are secondary.
hindsight
A-Q is the starting hand with which you get the most problems. That is the only way to get rid of them if you are not in the right position and the circumstances speak in favor of playing them.